The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins the 96.6% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, but Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Jesse Jackson Jr., positioned her as the nominee in a district encompassing Chicago’s South Side and southern suburbs. Republican Mike Noack advanced unopposed, yet faces the same structural headwinds that produced 67.6% Democratic support in 2024. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A national political wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the margin, though current conditions show no evidence of such shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-02 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
IL-02 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
$33,686 Vol.
$33,686 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
97%
Partido Republicano
1%
$33,686 Vol.
$33,686 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$14,437 Vol.
97%
Partido Republicano
$19,249 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins the 96.6% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, but Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Jesse Jackson Jr., positioned her as the nominee in a district encompassing Chicago’s South Side and southern suburbs. Republican Mike Noack advanced unopposed, yet faces the same structural headwinds that produced 67.6% Democratic support in 2024. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A national political wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the margin, though current conditions show no evidence of such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$33,686Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins the 96.6% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, but Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Jesse Jackson Jr., positioned her as the nominee in a district encompassing Chicago’s South Side and southern suburbs. Republican Mike Noack advanced unopposed, yet faces the same structural headwinds that produced 67.6% Democratic support in 2024. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A national political wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the margin, though current conditions show no evidence of such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,686Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins the 96.6% trader consensus for a Democratic win. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, but Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Jesse Jackson Jr., positioned her as the nominee in a district encompassing Chicago’s South Side and southern suburbs. Republican Mike Noack advanced unopposed, yet faces the same structural headwinds that produced 67.6% Democratic support in 2024. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A national political wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the margin, though current conditions show no evidence of such shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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