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Eleições·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa

icon for Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa
Eleições·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa

Ashley Hinson 98.3%

Jim Carlin 1.3%

Joshua Smith 1.3%

John Berman <1%

Polymarket

$19,019 Vol.

Ashley Hinson 98.3%

Jim Carlin 1.3%

Joshua Smith 1.3%

John Berman <1%

Polymarket

$19,019 Vol.

Ashley Hinson

$13,663 Vol.

98%

Jim Carlin

$829 Vol.

1%

Joshua Smith

$3,788 Vol.

1%

John Berman

$739 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Ashley Hinson commands overwhelming trader consensus at 98% to win Iowa's Republican Senate primary on June 2, fueled by high-profile endorsements from former President Trump, retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and recent backing from Senate GOP Whip John Thune, alongside her dominant fundraising lead reported in April. As the incumbent U.S. House member from Iowa's 2nd District, Hinson benefits from strong establishment support and incumbency advantages in the open-seat race to succeed Ernst, with challengers like state Sen. Jim Carlin trailing far behind amid scant primary polling. While scenarios like a late scandal, major endorsement shift to Carlin, or unexpected turnout surges could theoretically disrupt her path, traders price these risks as minimal given the compressed timeline and her organizational edge.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$19,019
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Ashley Hinson commands overwhelming trader consensus at 98% to win Iowa's Republican Senate primary on June 2, fueled by high-profile endorsements from former President Trump, retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and recent backing from Senate GOP Whip John Thune, alongside her dominant fundraising lead reported in April. As the incumbent U.S. House member from Iowa's 2nd District, Hinson benefits from strong establishment support and incumbency advantages in the open-seat race to succeed Ernst, with challengers like state Sen. Jim Carlin trailing far behind amid scant primary polling. While scenarios like a late scandal, major endorsement shift to Carlin, or unexpected turnout surges could theoretically disrupt her path, traders price these risks as minimal given the compressed timeline and her organizational edge.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$19,019
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley Hinson" at 98%, followed by "Jim Carlin" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" has generated $19K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" is "Ashley Hinson" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Carlin" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado de Iowa" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.