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Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

icon for Líder do Irão no final de 2026?
Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.0%

Sem Chefe de Estado 4.9%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,506,011 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.0%

Sem Chefe de Estado 4.9%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,506,011 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,957,416 Vol.

81%

Sem Chefe de Estado

$1,143,993 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$666,705 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,486 Vol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$773,664 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$913,240 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,069 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,019,700 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$936,317 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,110,559 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$830,953 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,404 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$534,747 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,745 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,583 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,001 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,693,627 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,149 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,055 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$198,963 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,627 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$432,942 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,736 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,062 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,430 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,565 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,478 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,276 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,100 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% implied probability as Iran's head of state at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This constitutional transition consolidated support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and principlist clerical networks, establishing institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Recent August 2026 actions—including senior military appointments and statements affirming operational capacity—have reinforced trader views of stability, while low single-digit odds for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or interim council scenarios reflect their brief earlier consideration without sustained momentum. "No head of state" at 4.9% and other listed figures capture residual uncertainty from health questions or external pressures, though primary-source reporting shows the current leadership structure intact through mid-2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,506,011
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% implied probability as Iran's head of state at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This constitutional transition consolidated support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and principlist clerical networks, establishing institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Recent August 2026 actions—including senior military appointments and statements affirming operational capacity—have reinforced trader views of stability, while low single-digit odds for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or interim council scenarios reflect their brief earlier consideration without sustained momentum. "No head of state" at 4.9% and other listed figures capture residual uncertainty from health questions or external pressures, though primary-source reporting shows the current leadership structure intact through mid-2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,506,011
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 81%, followed by "Sem Chefe de Estado" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" has generated $38.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sem Chefe de Estado" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.