**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIsrael fecha o seu espaço aéreo por...?
Israel fecha o seu espaço aéreo por...?
$31,165,994 Vol.
15 ago 2026
8 de maio
Não
24 de maio
Não
31 de maio
Não
8 de junho
Não
9 de junho
Não
10 de junho
Não
11 de junho
Não
12 de junho
Não
13 de junho
Não
14 de junho
Não
15 de junho
Não
30 de junho
Não
7 de julho
Não
15 de julho
Não
24 de julho
Não
31 de julho
Não
15 de agosto
Não
31 de agosto
Não
30 de setembro
Sim
$31,165,994 Vol.
8 de maio
$495,248 Vol.
Não
24 de maio
$570,943 Vol.
Não
31 de maio
$2,509,870 Vol.
Não
8 de junho
$1,100,436 Vol.
Não
9 de junho
$1,251,540 Vol.
Não
10 de junho
$1,045,931 Vol.
Não
11 de junho
$452,640 Vol.
Não
12 de junho
$147,791 Vol.
Não
13 de junho
$117,282 Vol.
Não
14 de junho
$787,296 Vol.
Não
15 de junho
$5,651,394 Vol.
Não
30 de junho
$4,823,492 Vol.
Não
7 de julho
$199,595 Vol.
Não
15 de julho
$1,770,056 Vol.
Não
24 de julho
$821,200 Vol.
Não
31 de julho
$3,278,470 Vol.
Não
15 de agosto
$1,008,696 Vol.
Não
31 de agosto
$1,561,278 Vol.
Não
30 de setembro
$3,572,835 Vol.
Sim
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$31,165,994Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,165,994Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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