The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoKY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Gallrein 9%+ 99.3%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
Massie 3-6% <1%
$196,771 Vol.
$196,771 Vol.
19 mai 2026
Gallrein 9%+
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
<1%
Gallrein <3%
<1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
Gallrein 9%+ 99.3%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
Massie 3-6% <1%
$196,771 Vol.
$196,771 Vol.
19 mai 2026
Gallrein 9%+
$125,579 Vol.
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
$12,513 Vol.
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$8,248 Vol.
<1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,624 Vol.
<1%
Massie <3%
$9,902 Vol.
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$19,365 Vol.
<1%
Massie 6%+
$14,451 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Volume
$196,771Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$196,771Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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