The razor-thin Peruvian runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, held June 7, explains the market's overwhelming consensus around a sub-0.5% Fujimori margin. With roughly 98.5% of ballots counted as of mid-June, Fujimori holds a narrow lead of under 20,000 votes out of more than 18 million cast, reflecting her strength in Lima, coastal urban areas, and overseas voting against Sánchez's rural and Andean support. Slow official tallies by ONPE, review of contested ballots, and historical patterns of protracted counts in Peru reinforce trader expectations of a final margin in the 0.2–0.3% range. Remaining rural or disputed votes, legal challenges, or shifts during the full certification process could still alter the exact bracket while preserving the overall closeness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição Peru 2ª Rodada: Margem de Vitória? (0,1% parênteses)
Eleição Peru 2ª Rodada: Margem de Vitória? (0,1% parênteses)
Fujimori 0,2–0,3% 96.4%
Fujimori 0,3–0,4% 1.8%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2% 1.6%
Fujimori 0–0,1% <1%
$1,844,169 Vol.
$1,844,169 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
<1%
Fujimori 0,9–1,0%
<1%
Fujimori 0,8–0,9%
<1%
Fujimori 0,7–0,8%
<1%
Fujimori 0,6–0,7%
<1%
Fujimori 0,5–0,6%
<1%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5%
<1%
Fujimori 0,3–0,4%
2%
Fujimori 0,2–0,3%
96%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2%
2%
Fujimori 0–0,1%
<1%
Sánchez 0–0,1%
<1%
Sánchez 0,1–0,2%
<1%
Sánchez 0,2–0,3%
<1%
Sánchez 0,3–0,4%
<1%
Sánchez 0,4–0,5%
<1%
Sánchez 0,5–0,6%
<1%
Sánchez 0,6–0,7%
<1%
Sánchez 0,7–0,8%
<1%
Sánchez 0,8–0,9%
<1%
Sánchez 0,9–1,0%
<1%
Sánchez mais de 1%
<1%
Outro
<1%
Fujimori 0,2–0,3% 96.4%
Fujimori 0,3–0,4% 1.8%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2% 1.6%
Fujimori 0–0,1% <1%
$1,844,169 Vol.
$1,844,169 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
$59,976 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,9–1,0%
$32,568 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,8–0,9%
$31,635 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,7–0,8%
$30,751 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,6–0,7%
$39,177 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,5–0,6%
$80,985 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5%
$172,960 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,3–0,4%
$257,876 Vol.
2%
Fujimori 0,2–0,3%
$143,155 Vol.
96%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2%
$215,643 Vol.
2%
Fujimori 0–0,1%
$232,223 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0–0,1%
$174,768 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,1–0,2%
$134,443 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,2–0,3%
$51,086 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,3–0,4%
$36,198 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,4–0,5%
$34,140 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,5–0,6%
$28,110 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,6–0,7%
$22,146 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,7–0,8%
$15,485 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,8–0,9%
$8,706 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,9–1,0%
$7,727 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez mais de 1%
$8,872 Vol.
<1%
Outro
$27,343 Vol.
<1%
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The razor-thin Peruvian runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, held June 7, explains the market's overwhelming consensus around a sub-0.5% Fujimori margin. With roughly 98.5% of ballots counted as of mid-June, Fujimori holds a narrow lead of under 20,000 votes out of more than 18 million cast, reflecting her strength in Lima, coastal urban areas, and overseas voting against Sánchez's rural and Andean support. Slow official tallies by ONPE, review of contested ballots, and historical patterns of protracted counts in Peru reinforce trader expectations of a final margin in the 0.2–0.3% range. Remaining rural or disputed votes, legal challenges, or shifts during the full certification process could still alter the exact bracket while preserving the overall closeness.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,844,169Mercado Aberto
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The razor-thin Peruvian runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, held June 7, explains the market's overwhelming consensus around a sub-0.5% Fujimori margin. With roughly 98.5% of ballots counted as of mid-June, Fujimori holds a narrow lead of under 20,000 votes out of more than 18 million cast, reflecting her strength in Lima, coastal urban areas, and overseas voting against Sánchez's rural and Andean support. Slow official tallies by ONPE, review of contested ballots, and historical patterns of protracted counts in Peru reinforce trader expectations of a final margin in the 0.2–0.3% range. Remaining rural or disputed votes, legal challenges, or shifts during the full certification process could still alter the exact bracket while preserving the overall closeness.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$1,844,169Mercado Aberto
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The razor-thin Peruvian runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, held June 7, explains the market's overwhelming consensus around a sub-0.5% Fujimori margin. With roughly 98.5% of ballots counted as of mid-June, Fujimori holds a narrow lead of under 20,000 votes out of more than 18 million cast, reflecting her strength in Lima, coastal urban areas, and overseas voting against Sánchez's rural and Andean support. Slow official tallies by ONPE, review of contested ballots, and historical patterns of protracted counts in Peru reinforce trader expectations of a final margin in the 0.2–0.3% range. Remaining rural or disputed votes, legal challenges, or shifts during the full certification process could still alter the exact bracket while preserving the overall closeness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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