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icon for O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?
Política·Eleições Globais

O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?

icon for O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?
Política·Eleições Globais

O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?

Sim

75% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

75% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, launched in February 2026 by former general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has steadily gained ground in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Multiple surveys from June through late July 2026 placed the new far-right party at 5.9–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega’s 5.7–6.2 percent range, reflecting ongoing erosion of support for Matteo Salvini’s party and voter shifts within the broader right-wing electorate. Vannacci’s movement has rapidly built membership and organizational capacity while emphasizing security and nationalist themes that resonate with segments previously aligned with Lega. These sustained polling differentials underpin trader consensus that Futuro Nazionale holds the stronger position entering the campaign period.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.

If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,198
Data de Término
23 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, launched in February 2026 by former general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has steadily gained ground in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Multiple surveys from June through late July 2026 placed the new far-right party at 5.9–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega’s 5.7–6.2 percent range, reflecting ongoing erosion of support for Matteo Salvini’s party and voter shifts within the broader right-wing electorate. Vannacci’s movement has rapidly built membership and organizational capacity while emphasizing security and nationalist themes that resonate with segments previously aligned with Lega. These sustained polling differentials underpin trader consensus that Futuro Nazionale holds the stronger position entering the campaign period.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.

If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,198
Data de Término
23 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que a Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" at 75%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" is "O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que a Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O Futuro Nazionale terá mais votos do que o Lega nas próximas eleições gerais italianas?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.