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Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06

icon for Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06
Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06

Ralph Alvarado 99.0%

Greg Plucinski <1%

Adam Perez Arquette <1%

Gavin Solomon <1%

Polymarket

$25,380 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado 99.0%

Greg Plucinski <1%

Adam Perez Arquette <1%

Gavin Solomon <1%

Polymarket

$25,380 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado

$11,370 Vol.

99%

Greg Plucinski

$1,055 Vol.

1%

Adam Perez Arquette

$1,987 Vol.

1%

Gavin Solomon

$1,998 Vol.

<1%

Ryan Dotson

$8,970 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ralph Alvarado holds a commanding lead in the Kentucky 6th Congressional District Republican primary because of early consolidation around his candidacy. President Donald Trump’s endorsement, combined with support from U.S. representatives Hal Rogers and Brett Guthrie plus Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers, has aligned party resources and donor networks behind the former state senator and physician. The recent withdrawal of Adam Perez Arquette, who endorsed Alvarado ahead of the May 19 vote, further narrowed the field against state Representative Ryan Dotson, businessman Greg Plucinski, and the remaining minor candidates. Internal polling released by the Alvarado campaign shows consistent dominance across key counties. While an unexpectedly low turnout or last-minute negative development could still alter the outcome before primary day, the breadth of institutional and grassroots backing makes significant movement improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$25,380
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ralph Alvarado holds a commanding lead in the Kentucky 6th Congressional District Republican primary because of early consolidation around his candidacy. President Donald Trump’s endorsement, combined with support from U.S. representatives Hal Rogers and Brett Guthrie plus Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers, has aligned party resources and donor networks behind the former state senator and physician. The recent withdrawal of Adam Perez Arquette, who endorsed Alvarado ahead of the May 19 vote, further narrowed the field against state Representative Ryan Dotson, businessman Greg Plucinski, and the remaining minor candidates. Internal polling released by the Alvarado campaign shows consistent dominance across key counties. While an unexpectedly low turnout or last-minute negative development could still alter the outcome before primary day, the breadth of institutional and grassroots backing makes significant movement improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$25,380
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ralph Alvarado" at 99%, followed by "Greg Plucinski" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" has generated $25.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" is "Ralph Alvarado" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Greg Plucinski" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.