Persistent warm, humid conditions from a lingering southerly flow and elevated dew points are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in NYC, keeping the lowest temperature on track for the mid-70s and driving the 37.5% market-implied probability on the 74–75°F bin. Recent multi-day heat-wave patterns, including a 74–75°F minimum on June 11, have reinforced trader expectations despite some longer-range models suggesting modest relief into the upper 60s or low 70s. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts emphasize above-average overnight lows for mid-June, when climatological minima average near 63°F, with urban heat island effects and potential cloud cover adding further support. Resolution hinges on the official LaGuardia or Central Park observation, with any late-day model shifts or unexpected clear skies the main variables that could favor the 68–69°F outcome at 22.5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Nova York em 14 de junho?
Temperatura mais baixa em Nova York em 14 de junho?
74-75°F 38%
68-69°F 23%
21-22°C 15%
72-73°F 12%
NOVO
NOVO
14 jun 2026
63°F ou menos
2%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
23%
21-22°C
15%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
38%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F ou mais
<1%
74-75°F 38%
68-69°F 23%
21-22°C 15%
72-73°F 12%
NOVO
NOVO
14 jun 2026
63°F ou menos
$1,486 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$1,128 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$1,471 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$483 Vol.
23%
21-22°C
$159 Vol.
15%
72-73°F
$211 Vol.
12%
74-75°F
$659 Vol.
38%
76-77°F
$1,391 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$564 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$976 Vol.
<1%
82°F ou mais
$775 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid conditions from a lingering southerly flow and elevated dew points are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in NYC, keeping the lowest temperature on track for the mid-70s and driving the 37.5% market-implied probability on the 74–75°F bin. Recent multi-day heat-wave patterns, including a 74–75°F minimum on June 11, have reinforced trader expectations despite some longer-range models suggesting modest relief into the upper 60s or low 70s. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts emphasize above-average overnight lows for mid-June, when climatological minima average near 63°F, with urban heat island effects and potential cloud cover adding further support. Resolution hinges on the official LaGuardia or Central Park observation, with any late-day model shifts or unexpected clear skies the main variables that could favor the 68–69°F outcome at 22.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 12, 2026, 9:31 PM ET
Volume
$9,053Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 9:31 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid conditions from a lingering southerly flow and elevated dew points are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in NYC, keeping the lowest temperature on track for the mid-70s and driving the 37.5% market-implied probability on the 74–75°F bin. Recent multi-day heat-wave patterns, including a 74–75°F minimum on June 11, have reinforced trader expectations despite some longer-range models suggesting modest relief into the upper 60s or low 70s. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts emphasize above-average overnight lows for mid-June, when climatological minima average near 63°F, with urban heat island effects and potential cloud cover adding further support. Resolution hinges on the official LaGuardia or Central Park observation, with any late-day model shifts or unexpected clear skies the main variables that could favor the 68–69°F outcome at 22.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,053Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 9:31 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm, humid conditions from a lingering southerly flow and elevated dew points are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in NYC, keeping the lowest temperature on track for the mid-70s and driving the 37.5% market-implied probability on the 74–75°F bin. Recent multi-day heat-wave patterns, including a 74–75°F minimum on June 11, have reinforced trader expectations despite some longer-range models suggesting modest relief into the upper 60s or low 70s. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts emphasize above-average overnight lows for mid-June, when climatological minima average near 63°F, with urban heat island effects and potential cloud cover adding further support. Resolution hinges on the official LaGuardia or Central Park observation, with any late-day model shifts or unexpected clear skies the main variables that could favor the 68–69°F outcome at 22.5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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