Trader consensus on Polymarket prices below-85% turnout at 49.5% implied probability for Malta's snap general election on May 30, driven by the short campaign following Prime Minister Robert Abela's April 27 call amid Middle East tensions and rising energy costs. Recent Vincent Marmara polling from early May shows Labour leading by roughly 29,000 votes, signaling a lopsided race that could suppress Nationalist Party turnout in this proportional representation system. Historical benchmarks—85.6% in 2022, over 90% in 2017—contrast with potential voter apathy from limited mobilization time and economic pressures, positioning 90-95% next at 35.9% while 95%+ lags at 0.6%; final figures await Electoral Commission certification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<85% 50%
90-95% 39.4%
85-90% 21%
95%+ <1%
$24,358 Vol.
$24,358 Vol.
<85%
50%
85-90%
21%
90-95%
39%
95%+
1%
<85% 50%
90-95% 39.4%
85-90% 21%
95%+ <1%
$24,358 Vol.
$24,358 Vol.
<85%
50%
85-90%
21%
90-95%
39%
95%+
1%
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Maltese general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Government of Malta, including the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/)
Mercado Aberto: May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Maltese general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Government of Malta, including the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices below-85% turnout at 49.5% implied probability for Malta's snap general election on May 30, driven by the short campaign following Prime Minister Robert Abela's April 27 call amid Middle East tensions and rising energy costs. Recent Vincent Marmara polling from early May shows Labour leading by roughly 29,000 votes, signaling a lopsided race that could suppress Nationalist Party turnout in this proportional representation system. Historical benchmarks—85.6% in 2022, over 90% in 2017—contrast with potential voter apathy from limited mobilization time and economic pressures, positioning 90-95% next at 35.9% while 95%+ lags at 0.6%; final figures await Electoral Commission certification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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