Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 71.5% because recent opinion polls show his Parti Québécois ahead of other parties ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with roughly 30% support compared to the Liberals near 27% and the Coalition Avenir Québec near 21%. Christine Fréchette’s selection as CAQ leader and premier in April 2026 initially boosted her party’s standing, yet satisfaction with her government has since declined and her implied probability sits at 13.2%. Charles Milliard, who became Liberal leader in February 2026, trades at 14% amid a split federalist vote. Lower-priced candidates face structural barriers in seat projections and party support levels, while the election timeline and ongoing polling trends remain the main variables that could shift these trader-assessed probabilities.