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icon for Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

icon for Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan 34%

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 21.9%

Rafael Grossi 14%

María Fernanda Espinosa 12.2%

Polymarket

$194,425 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan 34%

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 21.9%

Rafael Grossi 14%

María Fernanda Espinosa 12.2%

Polymarket

$194,425 Vol.

icon for Rebeca Grynspan

Rebeca Grynspan

$18,394 Vol.

34%

icon for Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett

$3,636 Vol.

22%

icon for Rafael Grossi

Rafael Grossi

$26,833 Vol.

14%

icon for María Fernanda Espinosa

María Fernanda Espinosa

$7,255 Vol.

12%

icon for Macky Sall

Macky Sall

$120,820 Vol.

7%

icon for Michelle Bachelet

Michelle Bachelet

$11,952 Vol.

3%

icon for Olara Otunnu

Olara Otunnu

$2,927 Vol.

2%

icon for Ivonne de Baki

Ivonne de Baki

$2,609 Vol.

1%

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Security Council’s ongoing series of informal straw polls, with the most recent on 21 August 2026 showing no candidate securing nine “encourage” votes free of significant opposition, has kept the race fragmented and driven market pricing. Rebeca Grynspan leads trader consensus on the strength of her UNCTAD leadership, Costa Rican government backing, and early poll performance emphasizing development and multilateral reform, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has gained ground through her Permanent Representative role and Caribbean diplomatic network. Rafael Grossi’s IAEA experience on nuclear issues provides visibility but draws more “discourage” tallies. Key differentiators include regional rotation favoring GRULAC candidates, P5 veto risk, and varying records on conflict mediation versus institutional reform. Further polls, clearer indications of permanent-member preferences, and candidate withdrawals could consolidate support by identifying a viable consensus nominee before a formal recommendation reaches the General Assembly.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$194,425
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Security Council’s ongoing series of informal straw polls, with the most recent on 21 August 2026 showing no candidate securing nine “encourage” votes free of significant opposition, has kept the race fragmented and driven market pricing. Rebeca Grynspan leads trader consensus on the strength of her UNCTAD leadership, Costa Rican government backing, and early poll performance emphasizing development and multilateral reform, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has gained ground through her Permanent Representative role and Caribbean diplomatic network. Rafael Grossi’s IAEA experience on nuclear issues provides visibility but draws more “discourage” tallies. Key differentiators include regional rotation favoring GRULAC candidates, P5 veto risk, and varying records on conflict mediation versus institutional reform. Further polls, clearer indications of permanent-member preferences, and candidate withdrawals could consolidate support by identifying a viable consensus nominee before a formal recommendation reaches the General Assembly.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$194,425
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 34%, followed by "Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" has generated $194.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.