The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa NH-01
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa NH-01
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
87%
Partido Republicano
13%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$3,625 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$2,912 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,538Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,538Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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