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Eleições·Nova Iorque

NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária

icon for NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária
Eleições·Nova Iorque

NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária

Lasher <5% 88%

Lasher 5–10% 6.9%

Lasher 10–15% 5.6%

Lasher 15%+ 4.5%

Polymarket

$90,442 Vol.

Lasher <5% 88%

Lasher 5–10% 6.9%

Lasher 10–15% 5.6%

Lasher 15%+ 4.5%

Polymarket

$90,442 Vol.

Lasher 15%+

$4,100 Vol.

5%

Lasher 10–15%

$4,053 Vol.

6%

Lasher 5–10%

$4,506 Vol.

7%

Lasher <5%

$12,190 Vol.

88%

Bores <5%

$36,389 Vol.

3%

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District shows a tight contest between state Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, with Lasher holding narrow leads in surveys including a Siena/AARP poll among voters 50+ and an Emerson College poll of likely primary voters. Large undecided shares and gender splits in support keep the outcome fluid ahead of the final days. A June 9 debate highlighted differences in experience and family references among the top contenders, including Jack Schlossberg. Trader pricing on margin-of-victory outcomes reflects expectations of a low-single-digit result between the two frontrunners, with limited support for larger gaps or an upset by Schlossberg.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$90,442
Data de Término
24 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. Recent polling for the June 23 Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District shows a tight contest between state Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, with Lasher holding narrow leads in surveys including a Siena/AARP poll among voters 50+ and an Emerson College poll of likely primary voters. Large undecided shares and gender splits in support keep the outcome fluid ahead of the final days. A June 9 debate highlighted differences in experience and family references among the top contenders, including Jack Schlossberg. Trader pricing on margin-of-victory outcomes reflects expectations of a low-single-digit result between the two frontrunners, with limited support for larger gaps or an upset by Schlossberg.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$90,442
Data de Término
24 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lasher <5%" at 88%, followed by "Lasher 5–10%" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária" has generated $90.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária" is "Lasher <5%" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lasher 5–10%" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Margem de Vitória Democrática Primária" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.