**Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York’s 20th congressional district for the November 2026 general election.** The Capital Region seat, which includes Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and parts of Saratoga and Rensselaer counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 and delivered Tonko a 61% victory in 2024. Both parties’ June 2026 primaries were uncontested, leaving Tonko (Democratic/Working Families) to face Republican/Conservative nominee Ralph Ambrosio, an attorney with limited prior statewide profile and modest fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean, Tonko’s long incumbency since 2013, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 95%, consistent with historical results and the lack of late-cycle catalysts that could narrow the margin. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unforeseen developments specific to the candidates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-20
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-20
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
4%
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$16,177 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$18,762 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York’s 20th congressional district for the November 2026 general election.** The Capital Region seat, which includes Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and parts of Saratoga and Rensselaer counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 and delivered Tonko a 61% victory in 2024. Both parties’ June 2026 primaries were uncontested, leaving Tonko (Democratic/Working Families) to face Republican/Conservative nominee Ralph Ambrosio, an attorney with limited prior statewide profile and modest fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean, Tonko’s long incumbency since 2013, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 95%, consistent with historical results and the lack of late-cycle catalysts that could narrow the margin. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unforeseen developments specific to the candidates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$34,940Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York’s 20th congressional district for the November 2026 general election.** The Capital Region seat, which includes Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and parts of Saratoga and Rensselaer counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 and delivered Tonko a 61% victory in 2024. Both parties’ June 2026 primaries were uncontested, leaving Tonko (Democratic/Working Families) to face Republican/Conservative nominee Ralph Ambrosio, an attorney with limited prior statewide profile and modest fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean, Tonko’s long incumbency since 2013, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 95%, consistent with historical results and the lack of late-cycle catalysts that could narrow the margin. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unforeseen developments specific to the candidates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,940Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York’s 20th congressional district for the November 2026 general election.** The Capital Region seat, which includes Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and parts of Saratoga and Rensselaer counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 and delivered Tonko a 61% victory in 2024. Both parties’ June 2026 primaries were uncontested, leaving Tonko (Democratic/Working Families) to face Republican/Conservative nominee Ralph Ambrosio, an attorney with limited prior statewide profile and modest fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean, Tonko’s long incumbency since 2013, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome near 95%, consistent with historical results and the lack of late-cycle catalysts that could narrow the margin. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unforeseen developments specific to the candidates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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