The heavily Democratic lean of Texas’s 18th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its boundaries, underpins trader expectations that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow Representative Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff, following an earlier special election victory that filled the vacancy created by the death of longtime Representative Sylvester Turner. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield emerged from a low-profile primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic performance history and Cook Political Report Solid D rating. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks since the spring primaries have kept probabilities stable, reflecting broad trader consensus on the limited path for Republican gains absent significant shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-18
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-18
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
93%
Partido Republicano
6%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$1,709 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas’s 18th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its boundaries, underpins trader expectations that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow Representative Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff, following an earlier special election victory that filled the vacancy created by the death of longtime Representative Sylvester Turner. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield emerged from a low-profile primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic performance history and Cook Political Report Solid D rating. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks since the spring primaries have kept probabilities stable, reflecting broad trader consensus on the limited path for Republican gains absent significant shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,709Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas’s 18th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its boundaries, underpins trader expectations that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow Representative Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff, following an earlier special election victory that filled the vacancy created by the death of longtime Representative Sylvester Turner. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield emerged from a low-profile primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic performance history and Cook Political Report Solid D rating. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks since the spring primaries have kept probabilities stable, reflecting broad trader consensus on the limited path for Republican gains absent significant shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,709Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of Texas’s 18th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its boundaries, underpins trader expectations that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee consolidated support by defeating fellow Representative Al Green in the May 2026 Democratic primary runoff, following an earlier special election victory that filled the vacancy created by the death of longtime Representative Sylvester Turner. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield emerged from a low-profile primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic performance history and Cook Political Report Solid D rating. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments or external shocks since the spring primaries have kept probabilities stable, reflecting broad trader consensus on the limited path for Republican gains absent significant shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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