Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed markedly in 2026, with the June reading at $73.3 billion following a May spike to $77.6 billion and an April low near $55 billion, driven by import declines in capital goods, consumer products, and pharmaceuticals outpacing export weakness. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative deficit stands at $371 billion, down sharply from the prior-year pace amid normalization after 2025 tariff-related import front-loading. Persistent goods deficits remain offset by a stable services surplus, while ongoing trade policy uncertainty and resilient U.S. demand continue to shape flows. These dynamics underpin strong trader positioning around the 700–900 billion annual range, reflecting expectations that deficits will settle below 2024’s $898 billion level but above the lowest bins absent major policy shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$23,985 Vol.
$23,985 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800 bilhões
32%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1T+
5%
$23,985 Vol.
$23,985 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800 bilhões
$670 Vol.
32%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,390 Vol.
15%
1T–1,1T
$1,452 Vol.
5%
1,1T+
$1,108 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed markedly in 2026, with the June reading at $73.3 billion following a May spike to $77.6 billion and an April low near $55 billion, driven by import declines in capital goods, consumer products, and pharmaceuticals outpacing export weakness. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative deficit stands at $371 billion, down sharply from the prior-year pace amid normalization after 2025 tariff-related import front-loading. Persistent goods deficits remain offset by a stable services surplus, while ongoing trade policy uncertainty and resilient U.S. demand continue to shape flows. These dynamics underpin strong trader positioning around the 700–900 billion annual range, reflecting expectations that deficits will settle below 2024’s $898 billion level but above the lowest bins absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$23,985Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed markedly in 2026, with the June reading at $73.3 billion following a May spike to $77.6 billion and an April low near $55 billion, driven by import declines in capital goods, consumer products, and pharmaceuticals outpacing export weakness. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative deficit stands at $371 billion, down sharply from the prior-year pace amid normalization after 2025 tariff-related import front-loading. Persistent goods deficits remain offset by a stable services surplus, while ongoing trade policy uncertainty and resilient U.S. demand continue to shape flows. These dynamics underpin strong trader positioning around the 700–900 billion annual range, reflecting expectations that deficits will settle below 2024’s $898 billion level but above the lowest bins absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$23,985Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed markedly in 2026, with the June reading at $73.3 billion following a May spike to $77.6 billion and an April low near $55 billion, driven by import declines in capital goods, consumer products, and pharmaceuticals outpacing export weakness. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative deficit stands at $371 billion, down sharply from the prior-year pace amid normalization after 2025 tariff-related import front-loading. Persistent goods deficits remain offset by a stable services surplus, while ongoing trade policy uncertainty and resilient U.S. demand continue to shape flows. These dynamics underpin strong trader positioning around the 700–900 billion annual range, reflecting expectations that deficits will settle below 2024’s $898 billion level but above the lowest bins absent major policy shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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