Ongoing indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated primarily by Pakistan following the inconclusive April 2026 Islamabad talks, have produced no confirmed date or venue for the next round as of mid-May. Iranian officials have stated that a framework agreement must precede any further meeting, while U.S. statements emphasize progress on a potential memorandum but note the need for consultations in respective capitals. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 48 percent chance of no in-person diplomatic meeting by June 30, with Pakistan holding near 39 percent as the leading venue due to its recent hosting role and ongoing facilitation efforts. Scheduled diplomatic events or official announcements confirming a location could shift probabilities before the resolution date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOnde acontecerá a próxima reunião diplomática EUA-Irã?
Nenhuma reunião até 30 de junho 48.4%
Paquistão 39.1%
Outro 2.9%
Suíça 2.8%
$6,457,075 Vol.
$6,457,075 Vol.
Nenhuma reunião até 30 de junho
48%
Paquistão
39%
Outro
3%
Suíça
3%
Omã
2%
Catar
1%
EUA
1%
Áustria
1%
Egito
<1%
Turquia
<1%
Itália
<1%
Irã
<1%
Iraque
<1%
Outro - Oriente Médio/África do Norte
<1%
Outro - Europa
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Rússia
<1%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
<1%
Cazaquistão
<1%
Nenhuma reunião até 30 de junho 48.4%
Paquistão 39.1%
Outro 2.9%
Suíça 2.8%
$6,457,075 Vol.
$6,457,075 Vol.
Nenhuma reunião até 30 de junho
48%
Paquistão
39%
Outro
3%
Suíça
3%
Omã
2%
Catar
1%
EUA
1%
Áustria
1%
Egito
<1%
Turquia
<1%
Itália
<1%
Irã
<1%
Iraque
<1%
Outro - Oriente Médio/África do Norte
<1%
Outro - Europa
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Rússia
<1%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
<1%
Cazaquistão
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated primarily by Pakistan following the inconclusive April 2026 Islamabad talks, have produced no confirmed date or venue for the next round as of mid-May. Iranian officials have stated that a framework agreement must precede any further meeting, while U.S. statements emphasize progress on a potential memorandum but note the need for consultations in respective capitals. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 48 percent chance of no in-person diplomatic meeting by June 30, with Pakistan holding near 39 percent as the leading venue due to its recent hosting role and ongoing facilitation efforts. Scheduled diplomatic events or official announcements confirming a location could shift probabilities before the resolution date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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