Romania's pro-European coalition collapsed after a May 5 no-confidence vote ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, triggered by the Social Democrats' April withdrawal over austerity measures and alliance with the far-right AUR to secure the required parliamentary majority. This has left President Nicusor Dan navigating fragmented negotiations among PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR to build a new government capable of passing legislation and securing EU funds. The closely matched trader prices across multiple PNL-led or PSD-inclusive combinations reflect ongoing talks, shifting alliances, and uncertainty over whether pro-reform parties can secure a stable majority without broader inclusion of PSD or temporary minority arrangements, with any breakthrough on fiscal policy or party positioning likely to shift probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 45%
PNL + UDMR 44.1%
AUR 4.7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 mai 2026
PSD
30%
PNL
-
USR
27%
UDMR
2%
AUR
5%
PSD + PNL
-
PSD + USR
2%
PSD + UDMR
37%
PSD + AUR
-
PNL + USR
40%
PNL + UDMR
44%
PNL + AUR
7%
USR + UDMR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
47%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
45%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
45%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 45%
PNL + UDMR 44.1%
AUR 4.7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 mai 2026
PSD
$30 Vol.
30%
PNL
$101 Vol.
-
USR
$817 Vol.
27%
UDMR
$580 Vol.
2%
AUR
$30 Vol.
5%
PSD + PNL
$118 Vol.
-
PSD + USR
$456 Vol.
2%
PSD + UDMR
$36 Vol.
37%
PSD + AUR
$147 Vol.
-
PNL + USR
$81 Vol.
40%
PNL + UDMR
$67 Vol.
44%
PNL + AUR
$160 Vol.
7%
USR + UDMR
$250 Vol.
1%
USR + AUR
$640 Vol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Vol.
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$77 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 Vol.
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 Vol.
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$240 Vol.
47%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 Vol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 Vol.
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Vol.
45%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 Vol.
1%
Other
$50 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's pro-European coalition collapsed after a May 5 no-confidence vote ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, triggered by the Social Democrats' April withdrawal over austerity measures and alliance with the far-right AUR to secure the required parliamentary majority. This has left President Nicusor Dan navigating fragmented negotiations among PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR to build a new government capable of passing legislation and securing EU funds. The closely matched trader prices across multiple PNL-led or PSD-inclusive combinations reflect ongoing talks, shifting alliances, and uncertainty over whether pro-reform parties can secure a stable majority without broader inclusion of PSD or temporary minority arrangements, with any breakthrough on fiscal policy or party positioning likely to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Mercado Aberto: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$7,726Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's pro-European coalition collapsed after a May 5 no-confidence vote ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, triggered by the Social Democrats' April withdrawal over austerity measures and alliance with the far-right AUR to secure the required parliamentary majority. This has left President Nicusor Dan navigating fragmented negotiations among PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR to build a new government capable of passing legislation and securing EU funds. The closely matched trader prices across multiple PNL-led or PSD-inclusive combinations reflect ongoing talks, shifting alliances, and uncertainty over whether pro-reform parties can secure a stable majority without broader inclusion of PSD or temporary minority arrangements, with any breakthrough on fiscal policy or party positioning likely to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Volume
$7,726Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania's pro-European coalition collapsed after a May 5 no-confidence vote ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, triggered by the Social Democrats' April withdrawal over austerity measures and alliance with the far-right AUR to secure the required parliamentary majority. This has left President Nicusor Dan navigating fragmented negotiations among PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR to build a new government capable of passing legislation and securing EU funds. The closely matched trader prices across multiple PNL-led or PSD-inclusive combinations reflect ongoing talks, shifting alliances, and uncertainty over whether pro-reform parties can secure a stable majority without broader inclusion of PSD or temporary minority arrangements, with any breakthrough on fiscal policy or party positioning likely to shift probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions