Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o modelo de IA número1 no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Qual empresa tem o modelo de IA número1 no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Anthropic 86%
Google 8.8%
Meta 5.3%
OpenAI 2.9%
$23,291 Vol.
$23,291 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
86%
9%
Meta
5%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 8.8%
Meta 5.3%
OpenAI 2.9%
$23,291 Vol.
$23,291 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
$13,592 Vol.
86%
$723 Vol.
9%
Meta
$561 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$935 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$594 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$502 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$493 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$357 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$429 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$456 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$431 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$413 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$427 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$413 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$411 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$414 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$359 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$426 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$534 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$419 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$23,291Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$23,291Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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