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Eleições·Trump

Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?

icon for Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?
Eleições·Trump

Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 88%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.8%

Connie Chan 2.4%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener 88%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.8%

Connie Chan 2.4%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$39,987 Vol.

88%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$23,596 Vol.

8%

Connie Chan

$206,212 Vol.

2%

Cole Bettles

$15,637 Vol.

<1%

Darren Helton

$19,351 Vol.

<1%

Jingchao Xiong

$41,386 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$11,696 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District, driven by his California Democratic Party endorsement, broad support from LGBTQ+ groups, and consistent polling advantage across demographics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. As a sitting state senator with years of preparation for the seat, Wiener benefits from established name recognition and institutional backing that have kept challengers at a distance. Saikat Chakrabarti, a self-funding progressive with ties to national left-wing networks, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, backed by labor unions and the Working Families Party, remain in a tight contest for distant second place according to recent surveys. These dynamics reflect trader focus on Wiener’s structural advantages in endorsements and voter preference data.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$357,865
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District, driven by his California Democratic Party endorsement, broad support from LGBTQ+ groups, and consistent polling advantage across demographics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. As a sitting state senator with years of preparation for the seat, Wiener benefits from established name recognition and institutional backing that have kept challengers at a distance. Saikat Chakrabarti, a self-funding progressive with ties to national left-wing networks, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, backed by labor unions and the Working Families Party, remain in a tight contest for distant second place according to recent surveys. These dynamics reflect trader focus on Wiener’s structural advantages in endorsements and voter preference data.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$357,865
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 88%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?" has generated $357.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?" is "Scott Wiener" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem ficará em primeiro lugar nas primárias para a vaga de Nancy Pelosi no Congresso (CA-11)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.