Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of escalatory PLA preparations amid routine military drills. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded Beijing lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, while April carrier transits through the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea exercises responded to U.S.-led Balikatan maneuvers and Japanese MSDF passages rather than signaling amphibious assault buildup. Ongoing Trump-Xi diplomacy, including a May summit described as positive despite U.S. arms sales discussions, underscores de-escalation signals and economic deterrence risks. Late-breaking diplomatic crises or Taiwan Strait blockades could shift odds, but current cross-strait gray-zone activities align with sustained stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
A China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
Sim
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Sim
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of escalatory PLA preparations amid routine military drills. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded Beijing lacks commitment to a 2027 invasion timeline, while April carrier transits through the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea exercises responded to U.S.-led Balikatan maneuvers and Japanese MSDF passages rather than signaling amphibious assault buildup. Ongoing Trump-Xi diplomacy, including a May summit described as positive despite U.S. arms sales discussions, underscores de-escalation signals and economic deterrence risks. Late-breaking diplomatic crises or Taiwan Strait blockades could shift odds, but current cross-strait gray-zone activities align with sustained stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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