Traders assign a 96.2% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, primarily due to the short remaining timeframe and lack of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts needed for such an operation. Beijing continues grey-zone pressure through ADIZ incursions, live-fire drills in the strait, and coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, while Taipei conducts Han Kuang exercises focused on reservist call-ups, supply resilience, and drone capabilities. These steps reflect ongoing coercion short of war amid high expected costs from U.S. and allied intervention. Late shifts remain possible via miscalculation in drills or sudden policy changes, though structural readiness gaps and timing constraints limit near-term risks.