Voter turnout expectations for the 2026 House elections remain tightly clustered around 115-130 million ballots, reflecting uncertainty over mobilization in a polarized environment. Democrats have shown stronger primary and special-election participation than Republicans in several states, consistent with historical patterns where the opposition party benefits from higher enthusiasm when facing an incumbent administration. Factors such as generic ballot leads, economic conditions, immigration policy debates, and concerns over election administration could widen participation gaps or suppress turnout among lower-propensity groups. Redistricting disputes and battleground dynamics in states like Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio add variables that traders weigh when pricing these ranges, with late-cycle shifts in voter registration or campaign spending potentially separating the leading outcomes.