Recent polling for the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election shows a technical tie or narrow leads between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party and challenger ACM Neto of Brazil Union, keeping first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Rodrigues draws on approval ratings above 55 percent and the structural edge of an incumbent, including support from municipal networks and emphasis on education and infrastructure results. ACM Neto has narrowed gaps through recent alignments with national right-wing blocs and leads in multiple May surveys, though earlier data favored Rodrigues. These polling swings, combined with the rematch from 2022, sustain closely matched trader probabilities as campaigns focus on voter mobilization and potential coalition adjustments before the first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Объем
$14,079 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
44%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Объем
$14,079 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
ACM Neto
$3,817 Объем
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,895 Объем
44%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Объем
<1%
João Roma
$966 Объем
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Объем
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Объем
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Объем
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election shows a technical tie or narrow leads between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party and challenger ACM Neto of Brazil Union, keeping first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Rodrigues draws on approval ratings above 55 percent and the structural edge of an incumbent, including support from municipal networks and emphasis on education and infrastructure results. ACM Neto has narrowed gaps through recent alignments with national right-wing blocs and leads in multiple May surveys, though earlier data favored Rodrigues. These polling swings, combined with the rematch from 2022, sustain closely matched trader probabilities as campaigns focus on voter mobilization and potential coalition adjustments before the first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$14,079Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election shows a technical tie or narrow leads between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party and challenger ACM Neto of Brazil Union, keeping first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Rodrigues draws on approval ratings above 55 percent and the structural edge of an incumbent, including support from municipal networks and emphasis on education and infrastructure results. ACM Neto has narrowed gaps through recent alignments with national right-wing blocs and leads in multiple May surveys, though earlier data favored Rodrigues. These polling swings, combined with the rematch from 2022, sustain closely matched trader probabilities as campaigns focus on voter mobilization and potential coalition adjustments before the first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$14,079Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election shows a technical tie or narrow leads between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party and challenger ACM Neto of Brazil Union, keeping first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Rodrigues draws on approval ratings above 55 percent and the structural edge of an incumbent, including support from municipal networks and emphasis on education and infrastructure results. ACM Neto has narrowed gaps through recent alignments with national right-wing blocs and leads in multiple May surveys, though earlier data favored Rodrigues. These polling swings, combined with the rematch from 2022, sustain closely matched trader probabilities as campaigns focus on voter mobilization and potential coalition adjustments before the first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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