Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 seats across 27 states are contested under the majoritarian system. State-level polls aggregated by outlets like O Estado de S. Paulo and VEJA show PL candidates leading or competitive in numerous races, bolstered by the party's current largest Senate bench of 15 members and projections estimating up to 22 new seats. Recent opposition momentum surged after the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—highlighting PL's role in the right-wing bloc hostile to the PT administration. MDB trails at 4.5% on centrist incumbency advantages, while UNIÃO Brasil and PT lag amid fragmented government support in key states. Upcoming party conventions could refine slates, but PL's organizational edge dominates trader assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест выиграно
Следующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест выиграно
Либеральная партия (PL) 77%
MDB 3.7%
UNIÃO 3.3%
ПТ 2.9%
$253,885 Объем
$253,885 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Либеральная партия (PL)
77%
MDB
4%
UNIÃO
3%
ПТ
3%
PSD
2%
ПОДЕМОС
1%
REPUBLICANOS
1%
NOVO
1%
ПСБ
1%
PSDB
<1%
PP
<1%
PDT
<1%
Либеральная партия (PL) 77%
MDB 3.7%
UNIÃO 3.3%
ПТ 2.9%
$253,885 Объем
$253,885 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Либеральная партия (PL)
$242,655 Объем
77%
MDB
$966 Объем
4%
UNIÃO
$958 Объем
3%
ПТ
$1,040 Объем
3%
PSD
$1,046 Объем
2%
ПОДЕМОС
$1,151 Объем
1%
REPUBLICANOS
$1,075 Объем
1%
NOVO
$1,134 Объем
1%
ПСБ
$1,058 Объем
1%
PSDB
$1,023 Объем
<1%
PP
$935 Объем
<1%
PDT
$843 Объем
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 seats across 27 states are contested under the majoritarian system. State-level polls aggregated by outlets like O Estado de S. Paulo and VEJA show PL candidates leading or competitive in numerous races, bolstered by the party's current largest Senate bench of 15 members and projections estimating up to 22 new seats. Recent opposition momentum surged after the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—highlighting PL's role in the right-wing bloc hostile to the PT administration. MDB trails at 4.5% on centrist incumbency advantages, while UNIÃO Brasil and PT lag amid fragmented government support in key states. Upcoming party conventions could refine slates, but PL's organizational edge dominates trader assessments.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$253,885Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 seats across 27 states are contested under the majoritarian system. State-level polls aggregated by outlets like O Estado de S. Paulo and VEJA show PL candidates leading or competitive in numerous races, bolstered by the party's current largest Senate bench of 15 members and projections estimating up to 22 new seats. Recent opposition momentum surged after the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—highlighting PL's role in the right-wing bloc hostile to the PT administration. MDB trails at 4.5% on centrist incumbency advantages, while UNIÃO Brasil and PT lag amid fragmented government support in key states. Upcoming party conventions could refine slates, but PL's organizational edge dominates trader assessments.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$253,885Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 seats across 27 states are contested under the majoritarian system. State-level polls aggregated by outlets like O Estado de S. Paulo and VEJA show PL candidates leading or competitive in numerous races, bolstered by the party's current largest Senate bench of 15 members and projections estimating up to 22 new seats. Recent opposition momentum surged after the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—highlighting PL's role in the right-wing bloc hostile to the PT administration. MDB trails at 4.5% on centrist incumbency advantages, while UNIÃO Brasil and PT lag amid fragmented government support in key states. Upcoming party conventions could refine slates, but PL's organizational edge dominates trader assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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