Elevated Selic rates near 15 percent, the highest in nearly two decades, continue to constrain credit and domestic demand, anchoring the 52.4 percent market-implied probability for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.9–2.2 percent range. Recent high-frequency readings, including resilient retail sales, services PMI expansion above 52, and a February IBC-Br increase, have offset some of the monetary tightening and supported this central outcome. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF, Central Bank Focus survey, and major banks cluster between 1.7 and 1.9 percent, consistent with a moderate quarterly print lifted by favorable base effects from late 2025. Traders are now focused on the May 29 IBGE release, where any further softening in labor-market or commodity-price data could shift probabilities toward the adjacent 1.5–1.8 percent bucket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРост ВВП Бразилии в 1 квартале 2026 года?
Рост ВВП Бразилии в 1 квартале 2026 года?
1,9%–2,2% 53.4%
1,5%–1,8% 12%
2,3%–2,6% 8.8%
≥2,7% 4.7%
$20,737 Объем
$20,737 Объем
29 мая 2026 г.
<0,7%
2%
0,7%–1,0%
2%
1,1%–1,4%
3%
1,5%–1,8%
27%
1,9%–2,2%
52%
2,3%–2,6%
29%
≥2,7%
10%
1,9%–2,2% 53.4%
1,5%–1,8% 12%
2,3%–2,6% 8.8%
≥2,7% 4.7%
$20,737 Объем
$20,737 Объем
29 мая 2026 г.
<0,7%
$14,389 Объем
2%
0,7%–1,0%
$660 Объем
2%
1,1%–1,4%
$506 Объем
3%
1,5%–1,8%
$1,040 Объем
27%
1,9%–2,2%
$1,631 Объем
52%
2,3%–2,6%
$684 Объем
29%
≥2,7%
$1,827 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15 percent, the highest in nearly two decades, continue to constrain credit and domestic demand, anchoring the 52.4 percent market-implied probability for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.9–2.2 percent range. Recent high-frequency readings, including resilient retail sales, services PMI expansion above 52, and a February IBC-Br increase, have offset some of the monetary tightening and supported this central outcome. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF, Central Bank Focus survey, and major banks cluster between 1.7 and 1.9 percent, consistent with a moderate quarterly print lifted by favorable base effects from late 2025. Traders are now focused on the May 29 IBGE release, where any further softening in labor-market or commodity-price data could shift probabilities toward the adjacent 1.5–1.8 percent bucket.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Объем
$20,737Дата окончания
29 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15 percent, the highest in nearly two decades, continue to constrain credit and domestic demand, anchoring the 52.4 percent market-implied probability for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.9–2.2 percent range. Recent high-frequency readings, including resilient retail sales, services PMI expansion above 52, and a February IBC-Br increase, have offset some of the monetary tightening and supported this central outcome. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF, Central Bank Focus survey, and major banks cluster between 1.7 and 1.9 percent, consistent with a moderate quarterly print lifted by favorable base effects from late 2025. Traders are now focused on the May 29 IBGE release, where any further softening in labor-market or commodity-price data could shift probabilities toward the adjacent 1.5–1.8 percent bucket.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$20,737Дата окончания
29 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15 percent, the highest in nearly two decades, continue to constrain credit and domestic demand, anchoring the 52.4 percent market-implied probability for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.9–2.2 percent range. Recent high-frequency readings, including resilient retail sales, services PMI expansion above 52, and a February IBC-Br increase, have offset some of the monetary tightening and supported this central outcome. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF, Central Bank Focus survey, and major banks cluster between 1.7 and 1.9 percent, consistent with a moderate quarterly print lifted by favorable base effects from late 2025. Traders are now focused on the May 29 IBGE release, where any further softening in labor-market or commodity-price data could shift probabilities toward the adjacent 1.5–1.8 percent bucket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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