Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over Central Texas continue to drive above-normal temperatures, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny conditions and highs near 104–105°F in Austin on August 25. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 102–103°F bin at 52% implied probability, followed by 104–105°F at 23%, reflecting model agreement on limited cloud cover, light southerly winds, and dew points supporting heat indices above 105°F. Above-average warmth throughout August, including recent days exceeding 100°F, reinforces the outlook, though slight cooling or increased moisture could shift probabilities toward the 100–101°F range if models trend lower in final updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Остине 25 августа?
102-103°F 53%
104-105°F 23%
100-101°F 19%
106-107°F 6%
95°F или ниже
1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
3%
100-101°F
19%
102-103°F
53%
104-105°F
23%
106-107°F
6%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F или выше
<1%
102-103°F 53%
104-105°F 23%
100-101°F 19%
106-107°F 6%
95°F или ниже
1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
3%
100-101°F
19%
102-103°F
53%
104-105°F
23%
106-107°F
6%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over Central Texas continue to drive above-normal temperatures, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny conditions and highs near 104–105°F in Austin on August 25. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 102–103°F bin at 52% implied probability, followed by 104–105°F at 23%, reflecting model agreement on limited cloud cover, light southerly winds, and dew points supporting heat indices above 105°F. Above-average warmth throughout August, including recent days exceeding 100°F, reinforces the outlook, though slight cooling or increased moisture could shift probabilities toward the 100–101°F range if models trend lower in final updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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