**Forecast models from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international services point to a maximum near 13–14°C for Buenos Aires on June 15, 2026, under mostly clear to scattered cloud conditions with light winds.** This tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 13°C and 14°C reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise peak, driven by small differences in expected daytime heating. Key variables include the strength of any onshore flow from the Río de la Plata estuary, which can moderate or slightly elevate temperatures, versus the timing and intensity of cold-air advection from the south. Winter insolation is limited by short daylight hours and a relatively low solar angle, so even modest changes in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical June averages hover around 15°C, but recent model runs favor slightly cooler conditions, keeping the two leading outcomes closely matched ahead of final observations.