Current National Weather Service and model guidance point to a highest temperature in San Francisco on June 15 likely falling in the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that typically caps daytime warming along the immediate coast. Key variables include the depth and timing of fog intrusion, which can suppress highs by 5–10°F compared to inland areas, variable wind speeds from the Pacific that enhance cooling, and any brief offshore wind shifts that might allow brief warming episodes. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 66–68°F with significant day-to-day variability from the marine influence, while recent model runs reflect modest warming potential amid broader regional patterns but retain spread due to forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions. Traders appear to price the highest odds around 70–71°F because that aligns with the central tendency of ensemble guidance, though lower or higher bins remain viable if the marine layer behaves differently than expected.