Rising regional tensions with Israel and the United States have kept traders focused on the risk of renewed Iranian airspace restrictions after the partial reopening of eastern corridors and Tehran airports in late April. Recent escalations in the Middle East, including reported strikes and diplomatic warnings, have driven sharp increases in implied probabilities for a broad commercial suspension before the end of May. Historical precedents show that Iran has imposed temporary closures lasting hours to weeks during periods of heightened alert, often rerouting international flights and disrupting regional travel. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and potential military developments in the coming weeks remain the primary variables that could shift trader assessments of whether another closure occurs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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