Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$192,428 Объем
$192,428 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$192,428 Объем
$192,428 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$192,428Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$192,428Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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