Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment activities and preventing inspectors from accessing sites. IAEA reports confirm no resumption of enrichment since the strikes, with Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent largely inaccessible under rubble or protected tunnels. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended by at least a year. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the April 2026 ceasefire have further reduced escalation risks, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027 despite the presence of near-weapons-grade material.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$192,428 Объем
$192,428 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$192,428 Объем
$192,428 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment activities and preventing inspectors from accessing sites. IAEA reports confirm no resumption of enrichment since the strikes, with Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent largely inaccessible under rubble or protected tunnels. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended by at least a year. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the April 2026 ceasefire have further reduced escalation risks, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027 despite the presence of near-weapons-grade material.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$192,428Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment activities and preventing inspectors from accessing sites. IAEA reports confirm no resumption of enrichment since the strikes, with Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent largely inaccessible under rubble or protected tunnels. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended by at least a year. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the April 2026 ceasefire have further reduced escalation risks, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027 despite the presence of near-weapons-grade material.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$192,428Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment activities and preventing inspectors from accessing sites. IAEA reports confirm no resumption of enrichment since the strikes, with Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent largely inaccessible under rubble or protected tunnels. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended by at least a year. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the April 2026 ceasefire have further reduced escalation risks, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027 despite the presence of near-weapons-grade material.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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