The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, U.S.-brokered on April 16, 2026, as a 10-day cessation of hostilities to enable peace negotiations, was extended three weeks on April 23 following White House talks announced by President Trump. Now nearing expiration around May 14 amid mutual violations—including Israeli strikes killing over 500 Lebanese since implementation—the fragile truce faces renewed pressure. On May 15, Israel and Lebanon held talks in Washington, with reports of a potential U.S.-announced extension, while Hezbollah opposes formal negotiations. Ongoing border incidents and limited de-escalation signals underscore uncertainty, with upcoming diplomatic sessions potentially clarifying extension prospects before escalation risks rise. Gaza's separate stalled truce adds regional tension but remains distinct.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
$329,923 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
May 15
12%
May 16
43%
May 17
55%
$329,923 Объем
May 15
$102,722 Объем
12%
May 16
$87,684 Объем
43%
May 17
$68,112 Объем
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, U.S.-brokered on April 16, 2026, as a 10-day cessation of hostilities to enable peace negotiations, was extended three weeks on April 23 following White House talks announced by President Trump. Now nearing expiration around May 14 amid mutual violations—including Israeli strikes killing over 500 Lebanese since implementation—the fragile truce faces renewed pressure. On May 15, Israel and Lebanon held talks in Washington, with reports of a potential U.S.-announced extension, while Hezbollah opposes formal negotiations. Ongoing border incidents and limited de-escalation signals underscore uncertainty, with upcoming diplomatic sessions potentially clarifying extension prospects before escalation risks rise. Gaza's separate stalled truce adds regional tension but remains distinct.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Объем
$329,923Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, U.S.-brokered on April 16, 2026, as a 10-day cessation of hostilities to enable peace negotiations, was extended three weeks on April 23 following White House talks announced by President Trump. Now nearing expiration around May 14 amid mutual violations—including Israeli strikes killing over 500 Lebanese since implementation—the fragile truce faces renewed pressure. On May 15, Israel and Lebanon held talks in Washington, with reports of a potential U.S.-announced extension, while Hezbollah opposes formal negotiations. Ongoing border incidents and limited de-escalation signals underscore uncertainty, with upcoming diplomatic sessions potentially clarifying extension prospects before escalation risks rise. Gaza's separate stalled truce adds regional tension but remains distinct.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$329,923Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, U.S.-brokered on April 16, 2026, as a 10-day cessation of hostilities to enable peace negotiations, was extended three weeks on April 23 following White House talks announced by President Trump. Now nearing expiration around May 14 amid mutual violations—including Israeli strikes killing over 500 Lebanese since implementation—the fragile truce faces renewed pressure. On May 15, Israel and Lebanon held talks in Washington, with reports of a potential U.S.-announced extension, while Hezbollah opposes formal negotiations. Ongoing border incidents and limited de-escalation signals underscore uncertainty, with upcoming diplomatic sessions potentially clarifying extension prospects before escalation risks rise. Gaza's separate stalled truce adds regional tension but remains distinct.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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