Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts by Khamenei-affiliated X accounts in the September 15–22 window because official channels have maintained a pattern of low-volume activity, often limited to occasional quotes, archival statements, or multilingual reposts rather than new content. Recent months show continued restraint amid leadership transition, security concerns, and limited public appearances by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following earlier conflict and health speculation. Primary accounts such as @khamenei_ir and @Khamenei_fa have averaged well below one original post per day in recent weeks. A surge beyond five posts could occur if a major diplomatic announcement, military development, or scheduled address requires rapid official dissemination, though such bursts have remained rare under current conditions.