**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins). The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Анкаре 15 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Анкаре 15 сентября?
5°C или ниже 78%
15°C или выше 78%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
5°C или ниже
78%
6°C
39%
7°C
22%
8°C
23%
9°C
22%
10°C
22%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C или выше
78%
5°C или ниже 78%
15°C или выше 78%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
5°C или ниже
$10 Объем
78%
6°C
$10 Объем
39%
7°C
$0 Объем
22%
8°C
$0 Объем
23%
9°C
$0 Объем
22%
10°C
$0 Объем
22%
11°C
$0 Объем
22%
12°C
$0 Объем
21%
13°C
$10 Объем
39%
14°C
$10 Объем
39%
15°C или выше
$10 Объем
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.**
Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins).
The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift.
With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Объем
$50Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.**
Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins).
The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift.
With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$50Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins). The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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