**Typical early-summer conditions position 78–79°F as the market favorite for Miami’s minimum temperature on June 15.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather show overnight lows in the upper 70s amid the region’s established hot, humid pattern, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Historical climatology reinforces this range: Miami’s June average low sits near 77–79°F, rarely falling below 72°F without a rare cool-air intrusion. Current model consensus indicates no significant cold fronts, strong onshore flow, or atypical steering patterns that would shift the minimum outside the 76–81°F window. The 47.5% implied probability on 78–79°F therefore reflects both the tight clustering of short-range guidance and the low likelihood of measurable deviations before sunrise on the 15th. Traders are watching the next NWS forecast update and any overnight observations for confirmation that the minimum stays within this narrow band.