Persistent heatwave conditions over northern France, driven by a strong high-pressure system and warm air advection, have kept Paris overnight temperatures elevated, with official Météo-France and European model consensus pointing to a minimum near 19°C on August 13. This aligns with the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome, as urban heat island effects and minimal radiative cooling under clear skies reduce the chance of dropping to historical mid-August averages around 15–16°C. Updated model runs through the evening will refine the exact threshold, though realistic shifts could occur from unanticipated increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement variations at official stations.