Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands 96.8% implied probability in trader consensus for the ME-02 Republican primary, reflecting his unmatched name recognition, proven appeal among the district's rural conservative base, and institutional support including NRCC's March inclusion on its "MAGA Majority" list and recent internal polls showing him leading general election opponents by double digits. Army veteran James Clark, a late entrant in December 2025 with minimal fundraising or statewide profile, poses negligible threat in the June 9 ranked-choice primary. No recent developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, endorsements for challengers, or primary polling—have dented LePage's dominance, with the short timeline further solidifying his path. Realistic disruptions would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue, or high-profile defection, though structural barriers make these improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 июн. 2026 г.
Пол Лепейдж
95%
Джеймс Кларк
2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 июн. 2026 г.
Пол Лепейдж
$6,466 Объем
95%
Джеймс Кларк
$3,088 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands 96.8% implied probability in trader consensus for the ME-02 Republican primary, reflecting his unmatched name recognition, proven appeal among the district's rural conservative base, and institutional support including NRCC's March inclusion on its "MAGA Majority" list and recent internal polls showing him leading general election opponents by double digits. Army veteran James Clark, a late entrant in December 2025 with minimal fundraising or statewide profile, poses negligible threat in the June 9 ranked-choice primary. No recent developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, endorsements for challengers, or primary polling—have dented LePage's dominance, with the short timeline further solidifying his path. Realistic disruptions would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue, or high-profile defection, though structural barriers make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$9,554Дата окончания
9 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands 96.8% implied probability in trader consensus for the ME-02 Republican primary, reflecting his unmatched name recognition, proven appeal among the district's rural conservative base, and institutional support including NRCC's March inclusion on its "MAGA Majority" list and recent internal polls showing him leading general election opponents by double digits. Army veteran James Clark, a late entrant in December 2025 with minimal fundraising or statewide profile, poses negligible threat in the June 9 ranked-choice primary. No recent developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, endorsements for challengers, or primary polling—have dented LePage's dominance, with the short timeline further solidifying his path. Realistic disruptions would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue, or high-profile defection, though structural barriers make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$9,554Дата окончания
9 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands 96.8% implied probability in trader consensus for the ME-02 Republican primary, reflecting his unmatched name recognition, proven appeal among the district's rural conservative base, and institutional support including NRCC's March inclusion on its "MAGA Majority" list and recent internal polls showing him leading general election opponents by double digits. Army veteran James Clark, a late entrant in December 2025 with minimal fundraising or statewide profile, poses negligible threat in the June 9 ranked-choice primary. No recent developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, endorsements for challengers, or primary polling—have dented LePage's dominance, with the short timeline further solidifying his path. Realistic disruptions would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue, or high-profile defection, though structural barriers make these improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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