Ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, with talks largely stalled amid the Iran conflict and no scheduled bilateral summit, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by August 31. Putin has repeatedly conditioned any direct encounter on prior expert-level agreements addressing territorial control, security guarantees, and recognition of realities on the ground, rejecting proposals for immediate leader-level talks without those foundations. Zelenskyy’s June open letter and August proposals delivered to U.S. mediators have not produced movement toward a face-to-face encounter, while Russia’s upcoming parliamentary vote adds further domestic timing constraints. The narrow remaining window leaves little scope for the procedural steps or third-party facilitation historically required before such a high-level meeting. A last-minute U.S.-brokered breakthrough or sudden shift in Russian positioning could still alter the outcome before the deadline.