Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has shifted focus toward de-escalation, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and follow-on nuclear negotiations rather than ground operations. Earlier 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and a temporary ceasefire preceded this framework, which includes economic development commitments and limits on new sanctions during talks. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for no invasion before 2027 aligns with these verified steps away from major escalation, absent new military triggers in the short resolution window through late 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$58,596,271 Объем
$58,596,271 Объем
Да
$58,596,271 Объем
$58,596,271 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has shifted focus toward de-escalation, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and follow-on nuclear negotiations rather than ground operations. Earlier 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and a temporary ceasefire preceded this framework, which includes economic development commitments and limits on new sanctions during talks. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for no invasion before 2027 aligns with these verified steps away from major escalation, absent new military triggers in the short resolution window through late 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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