President Trump’s February 2026 public call for Republicans to “nationalize” voting, followed by a March 2026 executive order directing federal agencies to compile citizenship lists and impose mail-ballot restrictions, briefly raised the issue. Courts have since blocked both that order and a prior 2025 version on constitutional grounds, holding that the Elections Clause reserves primary authority over election administration to the states and Congress rather than the executive. Multiple legal analyses confirm no emergency power grants the president unilateral control, and congressional resolutions plus state resistance have reinforced these limits. With the 2026 midterms approaching, trader consensus at 89 percent “No” reflects the durable institutional and judicial barriers that have contained prior attempts to centralize authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?
Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?
Да
11% вероятность
$19,021 Объем
$19,021 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$19,021 Объем
$19,021 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
President Trump’s February 2026 public call for Republicans to “nationalize” voting, followed by a March 2026 executive order directing federal agencies to compile citizenship lists and impose mail-ballot restrictions, briefly raised the issue. Courts have since blocked both that order and a prior 2025 version on constitutional grounds, holding that the Elections Clause reserves primary authority over election administration to the states and Congress rather than the executive. Multiple legal analyses confirm no emergency power grants the president unilateral control, and congressional resolutions plus state resistance have reinforced these limits. With the 2026 midterms approaching, trader consensus at 89 percent “No” reflects the durable institutional and judicial barriers that have contained prior attempts to centralize authority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Объем
$19,021Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
President Trump’s February 2026 public call for Republicans to “nationalize” voting, followed by a March 2026 executive order directing federal agencies to compile citizenship lists and impose mail-ballot restrictions, briefly raised the issue. Courts have since blocked both that order and a prior 2025 version on constitutional grounds, holding that the Elections Clause reserves primary authority over election administration to the states and Congress rather than the executive. Multiple legal analyses confirm no emergency power grants the president unilateral control, and congressional resolutions plus state resistance have reinforced these limits. With the 2026 midterms approaching, trader consensus at 89 percent “No” reflects the durable institutional and judicial barriers that have contained prior attempts to centralize authority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$19,021Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s February 2026 public call for Republicans to “nationalize” voting, followed by a March 2026 executive order directing federal agencies to compile citizenship lists and impose mail-ballot restrictions, briefly raised the issue. Courts have since blocked both that order and a prior 2025 version on constitutional grounds, holding that the Elections Clause reserves primary authority over election administration to the states and Congress rather than the executive. Multiple legal analyses confirm no emergency power grants the president unilateral control, and congressional resolutions plus state resistance have reinforced these limits. With the 2026 midterms approaching, trader consensus at 89 percent “No” reflects the durable institutional and judicial barriers that have contained prior attempts to centralize authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы