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Политика·федерализировать

Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?

icon for Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?
Политика·федерализировать

Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?

Да

11% вероятность
Polymarket

$15,491 Объем

Да

11% вероятность
Polymarket

$15,491 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. President Trump's February 2026 interview call for Republicans to "nationalize" voting in select states ahead of the 2026 midterms—citing unsubstantiated fraud claims—sparked backlash from state officials across parties emphasizing constitutional federalism under Article I, Section 4, which reserves election administration to states with limited congressional override. Subsequent executive orders in March 2026, such as "Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections," mandated proof-of-citizenship checks for federal ballots but stopped short of centralizing control. The SAVE America Act, requiring voter ID and eligibility verification, advanced through the House but remains stalled in the Senate amid filibuster disputes and Majority Leader John Thune's assessment of insufficient GOP votes. With midterms approaching and courts poised to challenge overreach, traders price an 89% "No" probability on full nationalization.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$15,491
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. President Trump's February 2026 interview call for Republicans to "nationalize" voting in select states ahead of the 2026 midterms—citing unsubstantiated fraud claims—sparked backlash from state officials across parties emphasizing constitutional federalism under Article I, Section 4, which reserves election administration to states with limited congressional override. Subsequent executive orders in March 2026, such as "Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections," mandated proof-of-citizenship checks for federal ballots but stopped short of centralizing control. The SAVE America Act, requiring voter ID and eligibility verification, advanced through the House but remains stalled in the Senate amid filibuster disputes and Majority Leader John Thune's assessment of insufficient GOP votes. With midterms approaching and courts poised to challenge overreach, traders price an 89% "No" probability on full nationalization.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$15,491
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

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Текущий фаворит для «Будет ли Трамп национализировать выборы?» — «Национализирует ли Трамп выборы?» с 11%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 11%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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