Recent July CPI data, which rose a modest 0.1% month-over-month in line with expectations after June's sharp decline, has anchored trader expectations for Core PCE. Economists' models now point to a 0.2% Core PCE MoM print for July, following the softer 0.1% June outcome that fell below forecasts. This trajectory reflects persistent but moderating underlying price pressures, with services and shelter components contributing to stability near the Fed's 2% target on an annualized basis. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2% outcome at 63.5%, with 0.3% as the secondary possibility at 31%, consistent with the recent cooling in headline measures and absence of major upside surprises in component data. The August 26 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in supercore or goods prices serving as the key swing factor.