Recent June Core PCE data printed at a softer-than-expected 0.1% month-over-month, following May’s 0.3% rise, while July CPI showed core prices advancing 0.2% MoM and 2.5% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader expectations for the July PCE release due August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome as the modal case with 54.5% implied probability. Persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through keep a 0.3% print as the secondary scenario at 28%, though further moderation in goods prices supports downside skew toward 0.1%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus that incoming data will likely align with the recent disinflation trend while remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCore PCE MoM - July 2026
Core PCE MoM - July 2026
0.2% 55%
0.3% 28%
0.1% 10.9%
0.4%+ 3.8%
$29,723 ปริมาณ
$29,723 ปริมาณ
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
11%
0.2%
55%
0.3%
28%
0.4%+
4%
0.2% 55%
0.3% 28%
0.1% 10.9%
0.4%+ 3.8%
$29,723 ปริมาณ
$29,723 ปริมาณ
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 ปริมาณ
<1%
-0.1%
$830 ปริมาณ
<1%
0.0%
$980 ปริมาณ
<1%
0.1%
$2,886 ปริมาณ
11%
0.2%
$3,991 ปริมาณ
55%
0.3%
$17,364 ปริมาณ
28%
0.4%+
$3,067 ปริมาณ
4%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June Core PCE data printed at a softer-than-expected 0.1% month-over-month, following May’s 0.3% rise, while July CPI showed core prices advancing 0.2% MoM and 2.5% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader expectations for the July PCE release due August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome as the modal case with 54.5% implied probability. Persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through keep a 0.3% print as the secondary scenario at 28%, though further moderation in goods prices supports downside skew toward 0.1%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus that incoming data will likely align with the recent disinflation trend while remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,723วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June Core PCE data printed at a softer-than-expected 0.1% month-over-month, following May’s 0.3% rise, while July CPI showed core prices advancing 0.2% MoM and 2.5% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader expectations for the July PCE release due August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome as the modal case with 54.5% implied probability. Persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through keep a 0.3% print as the secondary scenario at 28%, though further moderation in goods prices supports downside skew toward 0.1%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus that incoming data will likely align with the recent disinflation trend while remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,723วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June Core PCE data printed at a softer-than-expected 0.1% month-over-month, following May’s 0.3% rise, while July CPI showed core prices advancing 0.2% MoM and 2.5% year-over-year. These readings anchor trader expectations for the July PCE release due August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome as the modal case with 54.5% implied probability. Persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through keep a 0.3% print as the secondary scenario at 28%, though further moderation in goods prices supports downside skew toward 0.1%. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus that incoming data will likely align with the recent disinflation trend while remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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