Doug Ford’s decisive 2025 majority victory and January 2026 convention pledge to pursue a fourth term have anchored trader expectations that he will continue leading Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives through year-end. Recent activity, including policy announcements on data centers, tariff responses, and wildfire management, shows no signs of an imminent exit or internal challenge. Although personal approval has fallen to the low 20s in mid-2026 polls amid a cabinet expense scandal and the party trails the opposition in some surveys, the absence of credible leadership contenders or caucus pressure keeps the probability of departure by December 31 low. The next scheduled election lies beyond the resolution window, further supporting continuity in the current leadership.