Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, paired with a resilient economy showing 3.4% real GDP growth in Q3 2026 and October nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000, underpins the 76.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. The October 28 hold at 3.75%–4.00%, accompanied by two dissents favoring tighter policy, reflected the Committee’s preference for additional data before acting, while the September Summary of Economic Projections placed the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1%. Recent labor-market strength and broad price pressures have reinforced trader expectations for one further tightening, with the upcoming projections and dot plot serving as the next key catalyst for any shift in consensus.