Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on May 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 19?
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
20°C or below
$10 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$10 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$38 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$191 ปริมาณ
2%
24°C
$147 ปริมาณ
3%
25°C
$88 ปริมาณ
13%
26°C
$98 ปริมาณ
27%
27°C
$187 ปริมาณ
29%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
30°C or higher
$29 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$798วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$798วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย