Absence of any VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-May 2026 underpins the market's strong tilt toward zero or one event for the full year. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds crossed only rarely, with a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 such eruptions annually. Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records confirm 47 smaller confirmed eruptions so far, including ongoing effusive or moderate explosive activity at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, Dukono, and Semeru, yet none have produced sufficient ejecta volume or sustained high plumes. Recent weekly reports note brief ash emissions and unrest but no rapid ground deformation or magmatic recharge signals that would indicate imminent escalation. Daily monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift odds if a major system intensifies.