Recent polling aggregates show the Liberal Party maintaining a double-digit national lead over the Conservatives, with projections allocating the Liberals over 220 seats and the Conservatives under 90 if an election were held now. This positioning stems from sustained voter support for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government following the 2025 contest, including successful by-election defenses, floor crossings from Conservative ranks, and favorable handling of trade pressures. Conservative support has remained stagnant or declined in key regions such as Ontario and Quebec, limiting any projected seat gains. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against a Conservative flip reflects these consistent trends across multiple pollsters. Late-cycle shifts in economic conditions, leadership approval, or regional turnout patterns could still alter seat projections before the next fixed-date vote.