Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.8% implied probability to a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Austin on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 91°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and sunny skies. GFS and NAM model runs align on shortwave ridging over Central Texas, with southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusting to 25 mph) advecting warm Gulf moisture after yesterday's highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s and an overnight low near 76°F—well above May climatological norms of 87°F daytime highs. Realistic challenges include the 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introducing cloud cover, a premature sea breeze cooldown, or minor model discrepancies, though official observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) through late afternoon will confirm the peak.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Austin on May 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 15?
86°F or higher 98.5%
84-85°F 1.0%
82-83°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
BAGO
$33,654 Vol.
BAGO
$33,654 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
99%
86°F or higher 98.5%
84-85°F 1.0%
82-83°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
BAGO
$33,654 Vol.
BAGO
$33,654 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
$6,666 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$3,766 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$10,176 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$2,043 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,436 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,231 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,614 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,350 Vol.
1%
86°F or higher
$2,282 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.8% implied probability to a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Austin on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 91°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and sunny skies. GFS and NAM model runs align on shortwave ridging over Central Texas, with southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusting to 25 mph) advecting warm Gulf moisture after yesterday's highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s and an overnight low near 76°F—well above May climatological norms of 87°F daytime highs. Realistic challenges include the 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introducing cloud cover, a premature sea breeze cooldown, or minor model discrepancies, though official observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) through late afternoon will confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$33,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.8% implied probability to a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Austin on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 91°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and sunny skies. GFS and NAM model runs align on shortwave ridging over Central Texas, with southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusting to 25 mph) advecting warm Gulf moisture after yesterday's highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s and an overnight low near 76°F—well above May climatological norms of 87°F daytime highs. Realistic challenges include the 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introducing cloud cover, a premature sea breeze cooldown, or minor model discrepancies, though official observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) through late afternoon will confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.8% implied probability to a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Austin on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 91°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and sunny skies. GFS and NAM model runs align on shortwave ridging over Central Texas, with southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusting to 25 mph) advecting warm Gulf moisture after yesterday's highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s and an overnight low near 76°F—well above May climatological norms of 87°F daytime highs. Realistic challenges include the 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introducing cloud cover, a premature sea breeze cooldown, or minor model discrepancies, though official observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) through late afternoon will confirm the peak.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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